Lesson ProgressPhase 4 of 6
Phase 4Independent Practice
Independent Practice: Launch: Weekend Profit vs. Waste

Make bounded decisions within the launch scenario

Independent Practice: Weekend Decision Simulator

Now it's your turn to make some bounded business decisions. Remember: you don't have all the answers yet—that's what the rest of this unit will teach you. But you can use your business judgment to make reasonable choices.

Instructions: Read each scenario, choose the option you think is best, then see the consequence. Think about why your choice matters to profit and waste.

It's Saturday morning and you have 50 croissants left. The bakery manager asks: Should we discount the remaining croissants or throw them out?
Full price all day
Consequence: May sell 30, waste 20
Discount after 2pm
Consequence: May sell 45, waste 5
Donate to food bank
Consequence: Zero profit but good PR

Analysis: A 2pm discount strategy typically captures price-sensitive customers while there's still time to sell. This reduces waste without sacrificing morning full-price sales.

Weather forecast says rain for Sunday. Historical data shows 30% drop in foot traffic. You normally stock 90 croissants. How many should you order?
90 (same as normal)
Consequence: Likely 20+ unsold
65 (30% reduction)
Consequence: May run out near closing
75 (moderate cut)
Consequence: Balanced risk

Analysis: A moderate reduction accounts for the rain but preserves some buffer for unexpected walk-by traffic. Exact prediction is impossible, but the 30% guideline is a reasonable starting point.

Staff scheduling: You can schedule 2 or 3 baristas. Two costs $100, three costs $150. Saturday sales average $800. Which choice gives better profit?
2 baristas
Consequence: May lose some customers, profit ~$700
3 baristas
Consequence: Better service, profit ~$650
Need more data first
Consequence: Wise to gather info before deciding

Analysis: The right answer is 'need more data.' Before choosing, you'd want to know: How many customers are lost with 2 baristas? Is the $50 difference worth the customer experience? This is exactly what descriptive statistics will help calculate.

Reflection

Notice how each decision involves trade-offs between profit and waste? In scenario 3, the right answer was "need more data"—because without numbers, you're just guessing. That's exactly why this unit exists. By the end, you'll have the statistical tools to make these decisions with confidence.